Will the West Get Ever Serious about Sanctions on Iran?

Con Coughlin

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• [D]espite the clear and present threat Iran poses to the security of both the Middle East and the wider world, Western governments are still proving reluctant to take any measures needed to cripple the Iranian economy.
• A key factor in the reluctance of Western leaders to punish Iran for its aggression is the appeasement policy the Biden administration has pursued towards Iran in recent years in the naive hope that, by going easy on Iran, the Iranian regime might be persuaded to agree to a new deal on its nuclear activities.
• “The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention. If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China.” — Fernando Ferreira, head of geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group, Financial Times, April 17, 2024.
• If the West is really serious about holding Iran to account for its aggressive activities, then it… should include the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions against any country that continues to do business with Tehran in defiance of Western sanctions.
• Without Chinese oil imports, for example, the Iranian oil industry would most likely collapse, thereby increasing the pressure on the Iranian regime to mend its ways.

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(Image source: iStock/Getty Images)

If attempts by Western leaders to impose further sanctions against Iran in retaliation for its direct attack against Israel are to have any validity, they will need to be a great deal more effective than those implemented in recent decades.

For decades, the US and its allies have been imposing sanctions against Tehran in an attempt to restrain its malign support for terror organisations, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Wide-ranging sanctions have also been imposed against Tehran to curb its nuclear programme, which most Western intelligence agencies believe is ultimately aimed at fulfilling the Iranian regime’s quest to acquire a nuclear weapons arsenal.

This has led to restrictions being placed on Iran’s ability to access technology and material that might be used to aid its nuclear development, while a range of other economic sanctions, especially limiting Iran’s ability to export oil, have been implemented.

These sanctions were strengthened even more by the US after Iranian-backed militias were accused of attacking US forces in Syria and Iraq in the wake of the October 7 attack on Israel.

The UK, too, has adopted a more robust approach to Tehran after British security officials uncovered a number of Iranian plots to kill or kidnap Iranian opposition figures residing in the UK. Seven senior members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and one Iranian organisation were added to the UK’s sanctions list in January over claims they were involved in threats to kill journalists on British soil.

Iran’s direct attack against Israel earlier this month — the first time Iran carried out such a mission since its 1979 Islamic Revolution — has prompted Western leaders to formulate a new round of sanctions against Tehran aimed at targeting Iran’s drone and missile production industries.

In a coordinated announcement made by the US, UK and Canada this week, new measures were imposed against individuals and companies that are “closely involved” in Iran’s drone production.

The US Treasury announced it was “sanctioning over one dozen entities, individuals, and vessels that have played a central role in facilitating and financing the clandestine sale of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles.”

The measures will also result in two individuals facing a travel ban to the UK and an asset freeze, while four companies will be subjected to an asset freeze.

The measures are a direct response to the Iranian attack against Israel, in which more than 300 drones, missiles and ballistic missiles were fired at Israel.

Even so, the fact that the sanctions announced did not extend measures against Iran’s lucrative oil industry, whose revenues are primarily responsible for keeping the mullahs in power, shows that, despite the clear and present threat Iran poses to the security of both the Middle East and the wider world, Western governments are still proving reluctant to take the measures needed to cripple the Iranian economy.

A key factor in the reluctance of Western leaders to punish Iran for its aggression is the appeasement policy the Biden administration has pursued towards Iran in recent years in the naive hope that, by going easy on Iran, the Iranian regime might be persuaded to agree to a new deal on its nuclear activities.

US President Joe Biden’s desperation to strike a new deal with Tehran even led to him award a sanctions waiver to Iran granting the regime access to $10 billion, money that critics argue is being used to fund Iran’s terrorist network throughout the Middle East.

The fallacy of this approach was exposed when Iran threatened, in the wake of its unprecedented attack against Israel, to commence work on building nuclear weapons if Israel attacked any of its nuclear facilities, thereby revealing the true nature of Iran’s ultimate nuclear ambitions.

The real challenge Western leaders face, though, in their bid to increase sanctions against Iran, is that all the evidence suggests that, in terms of having any impact on the Iranian regime, they are proving woefully ineffective.

An important factor in the regime’s ability to withstand Western sanctions has been the willingness of other autocratic states, such as China and Russia, to continue doing business with Tehran. China has now become the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, while Moscow has enjoyed a number of lucrative contracts with Tehran to supply weapons for use in the Ukraine conflict.

Consequently, the sanctions are failing to have the desired effect in curbing Iran’s destabilising activities.

As Fernando Ferreira, head of geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group in the US, explained in a recent interview with London’s Financial Times, “The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention. If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China.”

All the indications from Tehran certainly suggest it does not feel in any way threatened by the prospect of further sanctions. As Iran’s oil minister Javad Owji remarked recently, while Iran’s enemies wanted to stop its exports, “today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts”.

If the West is really serious about holding Iran to account for its aggressive activities, then it needs to look at new ways at making sure sanctions have their desired effect.

This should include the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions against any country that continues to do business with Tehran in defiance of Western sanctions.

Without Chinese oil imports, for example, the Iranian oil industry would most likely collapse, thereby increasing the pressure on the Iranian regime to mend its ways.

Similarly, Moscow’s lucrative arms deals with Tehran provide an important financial lifeline for Iran’s arms industry, which is used to arm and equip Iran’s global terrorist infrastructure.

If Western leaders really want the sanctions to have the desired effect of curbing Iran’s malign activities, then imposing secondary sanctions on those countries that continue to do business with Tehran will send a clear message that the West is not prepared to tolerate any violations of its sanctions regime.

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Con Coughlin is the Telegraph‘s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.

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