‘A Symbolic Achievement’: Haniyeh’s Death a Blow to Hamas, But Will Not Change Terror Group Significantly, Analysts Say

Debbie Weiss

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Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh speaks during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, March 26, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

The assassination of exiled Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has sent shock waves through the Palestinian terrorist organization and the broader Middle East but, on its own, is unlikely to undermine the Islamist group’s stability in the long term, analysts say.

Haniyeh, who as the terror group’s political chief is known for his role in recent Gaza ceasefire negotiations, was killed in Tehran early Wednesday morning by the “Zionist entity,” according to both Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hamas. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was not involved in Haniyeh’s elimination, only commenting that pursuing an immediate ceasefire was “imperative.”

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the terror group remained unfettered by Haniyeh’s death. “We are waging an open war to liberate Jerusalem and are ready to pay any price,” Abu Zuhri said. “Hamas is a concept and an institution and not persons. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices and we are confident of victory.”

Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst closely affiliated with Hamas, underscored the terror group’s history of recovering from similar losses, having endured the assassinations of various political and military leaders in the past. It “came out of those scenarios stronger,” Madhoun told The New York Times.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to the prime minister of Israel, said that Haniyeh’s assassination was mostly symbolic.

“Hanieyh will be replaced within 48 hours, maybe by [Moussa] Abu Marzouk, or Khaled Mashal,” Amidror said in a call with The Algemeiner and other outlets.

“It is a symbolic action to make clear to everyone that Israel is ready to act whenever they can,” he added. “It says something about the determination of Israel to get rid of its enemies.”

Hamas’ Gaza-based chief Yahya Sinwar was a “much more important” target, Amidror said, that would have far-reaching repercussions on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, said Haniyeh’s assassination was a part of a plan to kill “all those who were involved in the Oct. 7 attack and the killing, burning, beheading, raping, of our citizens.”

Hamas launched the ongoing war with its invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, when the Palestinian terrorists murdered 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 hostages to Gaza. Sinwar has been widely considered the mastermind of the attack.

Yadlin pointed out that the assassination occurred in Iran rather than Qatar, emphasizing that the choice was likely made to avoid jeopardizing ongoing hostage negotiations.

“Israel doesn’t want to open a new front with Doha,” he said, referring to Qatar’s role in mediating ongoing ceasefire negotiations. For years, Qatar has hosted senior Hamas leaders, including Haniyeh, who reportedly lived there in luxury.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed outrage over Wednesday’s killing, vowing retaliation. In a statement released by the state-run IRNA news agency, Khamenei described the incident as a “martyrdom” inflicted by the “criminal and terrorist Zionist regime.” He vowed that Iran would impose a “harsh punishment” in response to the killing of Haniyeh, whom he referred to as a “beloved guest.”

Iran is the chief international sponsor of Hamas, providing the terror group with weapons, funding, and training. Haniyeh has traveled to Iran multiple times since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, including in May when he delivered a eulogy for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at a funeral.

The Hamas political chief was in Iran this week meeting with Khamenei and other top regime officials and participated on Tuesday in the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Despite being more directly involved in Hamas’ political affairs than its military operations, Haniyeh was placed on the US State Department’s Specially Designated Global Terrorists list in 2018.

“Haniyeh has close links with Hamas’ military wing and has been a proponent of armed struggle, including against civilians,” the department said at the time while announcing his terror designation. “He has reportedly been involved in terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens. Hamas has been responsible for an estimated 17 American lives killed in terrorist attacks.”

Haniyeh’s killing occurred after Israel conducted an airstrike in Beirut, eliminating Fuad Shukr, whom it identified as the military commander of Hezbollah’s terrorist operations.

Yadlin said that Iran, and its proxy Hezbollah, would take time before responding, and said that the response would be measured because they were not interested in igniting a full-scale war. “I can see them trying to attack Israelis in the global arena, like embassies and tourists, as they have done in the past,” he said.

Mohammad Dahlan, former senior official from the Palestinian Authority’s ruling Fatah movement and PA President Mahmoud Abbas’ main rival, condemned the “cowardly” assassination of Haniyeh, who he called a “great national leader.”

According to Amidror, Israel had more than a year to complete its campaign of destroying Hamas in Gaza. Another three months of intense conflict were required to eliminate the remaining battalions, primarily based in Rafah, he said, followed by a year of operations to “clean up” the remnants of the terror group in the rest of Gaza. This would involve routine raids into the Palestinian enclave, similar to those conducted in the West Bank during the Second Intifada.

“We’re at the end of the beginning,” he said.

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